Arizona hosts Washington State to tip off final week of the regular season
Arizona is carrying a three-game losing streak into the final week of the regular season. The Wildcats (19-10, 9-7 Pac-12) having been chasing win number 20 for a while now. The losing streak started with a tough-to-swallow overtime loss to Oregon at home, followed by a flop at USC and a late-game meltdown at UCLA that saw the Bruins erase a six point deficit in the game’s final two minutes to upset Arizona 69-64 in Westwood.
The friendly confines of McKale Center should greet the Wildcats with a warm reception on Thursday when the Wildcats host the Cougars. However, fan frustration could easily erupt if Arizona doesn’t show some signs of life and renewed vigor after what can only be described as a disappointing stretch of basketball in recent weeks.
WSU (15-14, 6-10 Pac-12) has had struggles of its own and proved to be no match for Arizona in Pullman back in early February when the Wildcats pulled away for a comfortable 66-49 victory.
The odd makers have Arizona as a prohibitive 15-point favorite, but odds and statistics have become meaningless for a Wildcat team still searching for ways to put together a full 40-minute effort on both ends of the court.
Arizona is just 3-6 in games decided by five points or less this year, which includes two overtime losses to the Ducks. The wins came against a very average Pepperdine team way back in November, a hapless Washington team (in Seattle) that is poised to finish at the bottom of the Pac-12 standings, and a USC team (in Tucson) that is hovering on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
The Wildcats need a feel good week to gain some momentum entering postseason play. More importantly, Arizona almost assuredly needs a sweep of the Washington schools to simply remain in contention for a coveted first round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament next week in Las Vegas. Officially, Arizona currently sits in seventh place and is technically tied for fourth place in the loss column with Colorado, USC and Stanford.
The Cougars have dropped four of their last five games, but do arrive at McKale Center on the heels of a 78-74 win over rival Washington. WSU ranks second to last among conference teams in points per game during Pac-12 play (69), while ranking dead last in league with a team shooting percentage of only 39.8 percent from the floor.
To win, Arizona needs to jump on WSU early and never let up. This doesn’t mean they have to race out to a big league in the opening minutes. More important is Arizona demonstrating a steady, consistent level of play that actually builds over the course of the game, rather than continuing to see-saw back and forth between scoring efficiency and scoring inefficiency.
The worry is at this late point in the season, most teams are what they are. Right now, Arizona has been a team with flashes of brilliance and sustained stretches of ineptness. While that inconsistency is likely good enough to beat the Cougars in Tucson tonight, no one, including the coaching staff and the student athletes, will be satisfied with anything less than a sustained effort of high level basketball for the full 40 minutes. Without it, Arizona is destined to eventually end its season in a fashion similar to how they have already lost so many close games to quality opponents.
Expect Arizona’s defense to try and force the Cougars to beat them from the perimeter (WSU shoots just 31 percent from the 3-Point arc in conference play) and then minimize second chance opportunities, while using defensive rebounds and steals to trigger their own transition game.
In the half court set, expect to see more two-man play between Nico Mannion and Zeke Nnaji. It’s something that has been lacking in recent weeks. Also expect to see Miller go to his bench a little more often tonight to try and get some mojo back from his reserve players. Most notably, the all-around toughness of Ira Lee and the shooting abilities of Max Hazzard.
Big picture, I anticipate seeing an overly aggressive Arizona team, particularly following the Miller ejection at UCLA last Saturday. There’s a chance a rare moment like that could prove to be the turning point in a season. Miller was seething mad and did the right thing in sticking up for his team. His ejection was clearly intentional on his part and might prove to be the one thing that finally rallies this team together now that March Madness is officially underway.