The Buchanan Report: Week 2
The harsh reality sunk in the first quarter last Saturday night against a motivated University of Hawaii Rainbow Warriors team. Arizona gave up big plays and points quickly, had their defensive secondary picked clean, and wasted early offensive possessions. Generally, the overall impression Arizona left was that it looked confused and lost.
Fittingly, the sideline appearance of the coaching staff seemed to reflect that same confusion.
Less than two years ago, University of Arizona President Dr. Robert Robbins, renowned Cardiovascular Surgeon, and Athletic Director Dave Heeke fired Coach Rich Rodriguez and bought out the remainder of his $6.28 million contract.
As an advisor to the University of Arizona, former Wildcat coach Dick Tomey recommended Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo, one of his former players at the University of Hawaii. Niumatalolo impressed Robbins and Heeke, was offered the job, accepted, but had a change of heart when he went back to Annapolis to break the news to his team.
Next up was Kevin Sumlin, recently fired from Texas A&M. On the surface, and initially, this seemed a shrewd move. Sumlin had amassed an 86-43 overall head coaching record at the University of Houston and Texas A&M. The Aggies compete in the toughest division (West) in the toughest conference (SEC) in college football. Sumlin’s record at Texas A&M looks robust at 51-26. Upon closer inspection, though, his teams finished with a winning record, in conference, only once (6-2) during his first year (2012). Otherwise, his overall conference record was just above .500, at 25-23. Granted, the SEC has the stiffest competition in all of college football, and the Aggies are tied with Auburn for the 3 best record during his 6-year span in the SEC, but without the 2012 season, his teams were below .500 at 19-21, finishing 4, 6, 5, 4 and 4 out of 7 teams in the SEC West from 2013 to 2017.
The numbers are a bit more revealing when evaluating the last five years of Sumlin’ s SEC conference record, compared to the rest of the West Division. During that time Alabama had the best conference record at 36-4, followed by LSU and Auburn at 25-15, Mississippi State at 20-20, Texas A&M and Ole Miss at 19-21, and Arkansas at 12-28.
The SEC West is a tough conference and, clearly through the time Sumlin was leading Texas A&M, Alabama fielded powerhouse teams, with LSU and Auburn a distant second, MSU, Ole Miss and Sumlin’s teams roughly equal, and Arkansas the bottom feeder. Along with all the SEC schools, Sumlin’s overall record was bolstered by the fact that they play only 8 conference games (The Pac 12 plays 9). Most SEC schools schedule a virtual bye week at some point in the middle of the season, playing the likes of Lamar, Texas El Paso, Louisiana Monroe, Furman, etc. In Sumlin’ s best year in the SEC, his first in 2012, the Aggies record was 11-2, but that season also included wins against two Non-1A schools, South Carolina State and Sam Houston State.
To be fair, TA&M’s out of conference schedule also included some Pac 12 schools in Arizona State and UCLA (twice).
But what was it that coaching legend Bill Parcells said? “You are what your record says you are.”
Playing in a tough conference is a meaningful thing. However, finishing with an average to mediocre to near the bottom of the conference record is not so meaningful. Sumlin’ s overall head coaching record looks decent, but upon closer inspection his SEC wins came mostly from the bottom half of the conference teams in both the West and East Divisions. In fact, out of 25 conference wins from 2012 to 2017, 17 came from teams near the bottom of the SEC standings against the likes of Arkansas (6), South Carolina (3), Ole Miss (3), MSU (3) and Vanderbilt (1). Sumlin’s teams only beat Alabama and Auburn once in seven years, and lost to LSU every time during his tenure.
After Saturday night’s loss, with the Wildcats falling exactly one yard short of tying Hawaii at 45 apiece as the clock ran out, Heart Surgeon/U of A President Dr. Robbins must wonder if his team is in need of a heart transplant!
The opinion here is that Coach Sumlin’ s impressive record at Houston, his first head coaching job, and his overall coaching record at Texas A&M was a mirage. On the surface it was impressive. But closer examination reveals deficiencies that were there all along.
Without drastic improvement, at the very outset of the season, Arizona looks like a 4-win team. On a local Tucson sports talk show a few days ago, Athletic Director Dave Heeke encouraged fans “not to give up on the players.”
Those are nice thoughts and encouragements, but fans do not give up on players. They do, however, express doubts about coaches. The simple tell is attendance figures to know if the fans already have or possibly will give up on your head coaching choice. Next Saturday’s season home opener against Northern Arizona will not tell us much as attendance will undoubtedly be low, but upcoming home games against Texas Tech and UCLA will certainly suggest a lot.