Game Preview: North Carolina vs. Marquette (NCAA Tournament - 1st Round)

UNC takes on Marquette on Thursday in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament.

Author:
Isaac Schade
Mar 17, 2022 8:00 AM EDT

Forth Worth, Tex.

East Region
(8) North Carolina (24-9) vs. (9) Marquette (19-12)
3:30pm approx. tip (local time) | 4:30pm ET
TBS
Dickies Arena
UNC -3.5

North Carolina and Marquette will square off in a matchup that looks almost completely different than when the two teams met in the 2020-21 season, thanks to some last-minute scheduling.

Both teams have a new coach. The leading scorer in that game was a Golden Eagle and is now a Tar Heel. Only one player who played for Marquette in that game is on this year's roster.

To get you prepared for the game, here are some of the major storylines, followed by my Four Corners keys to the game. Also, keep reading to learn about some incredible new UNC student-athlete bobbleheads recently released by FOCO!

Storylines

Revenge, part 1 - Shaka Smart

North Carolina was 0-3 against Texas while Shaka Smart was the head coach, despite being ranked higher in all three matchups. The Tar Heels often got out-physicaled in those matchups. At the same time, all three losses were by a combined seven points (three, two, and three). So the question on Thursday: Can Carolina finally solve Shaka Smart?

Revenge, part 2 - Marquette

Last season, Marquette beat Carolina 83-70 inside the Smith Center. The Tar Heels also owe the Golden Eagles some payback for the 1977 National Championship game. Of course, both teams look quite different today than last season. Two of Marquette's starters from that game are now playing a couple miles apart in Chapel Hill (Dawson Garcia) and Durham (Theo John). In fact, while Marquette does have five players on this year's roster who were on the team last season, two of them are walk-ons and only one (Greg Elliott) played in last year's game.
Carolina, on the other hand, has five players back who played in that game, including four of this year's starters (all but Brady Manek).
Keep in mind also that both teams have brand new coaches, with different playing styles than last year's teams.
So while you can extrapolate a few things from last year’s matchup in the Smith Center to help forecast this game, it will be a wholly next experience.

Revenge, part 3 - NCAA Tournament First Round

Last year, Carolina last in this same round, as the same seed, with a probable chance to play Baylor on the line. The opponent was different (Wisconsin) and the stakes were higher (although we didn't know it at the time, but it turned out to be Roy Williams' last game). While the Tar Heels can't go back and win that game by winning this game, they certainly can use it as motivation.

Dawson Garcia

Transferred to Carolina from Marquette for this season and was the leading scorer in last year’s game (24). As you likely know, Garcia is out for the year to be with his family, several of whom have health problems. But IF Garcia was playing in this game, you can imagine that people would be all over it. Alas, it's not meant to be.

Hubert Davis' first NCAA Tournament game as head coach

This game will mark the first opportunity for Coach Davis on the biggest stage as a head coach. However, he has obviously had his fair share of opportunities as a player and assistant coach. In his four years as player in Chapel Hill the Tar Heels went to three Sweet Sixteens and a Final Four.

Rest

Losing to Virginia Tech in the ACC semifinals might not have been the worst thing in the world. The starting five have played so many minutes together this season and any opportunity to take some time off is a win. Particularly because had the Tar Heels won they would have played Duke, which would have led to more physical, mental, and emotional taxation. And hey, it also means that the last time Carolina faced Coach K they ruined his retirement party.
That rest will be invaluable for the starting five, which ranks as the 10th most-efficient quintet in all of Division I according to EvanMiya.com.

Before we get to Four Corners, let me tell you more about these FOCO UNC Student-Athlete Bobbleheads

FOCO Releases North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball Student Athlete Bobblehead Collection

To celebrate yet another stellar season, FOCO has made a collection of bobbleheads to celebrate three of UNC’s best athletes. The collection features Armando Bacot, Brady Manek, and Caleb Love which can be found here.

Each bobble is limited to 321 individually-numbered units, so don’t wait to get yours. They retail for $60 and are handcrafted and hand painted. Head online to order one of FOCO’s North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball Student Athlete Bobbleheads and while you’re there check out the rest of their North Carolina Tar Heels Collection to show who’s the biggest fan in your town!

Four Corners keys to the game

Before every game I drop four keys to the game that I am looking for. In an homage to Coach Smith, I call this segment "Four Corners".

Protect the ball. Shaka Smart's teams have a way of disrupting and bothering ball handlers. Caleb Love and RJ Davis have to be strong with the ball. Leaky Black needs to be ready to help out. The tandem guards should help Carolina immensely. And should they push ahead, Love and Davis will be able to find Brady Manek or Armando Bacot in position for a scoring opportunity. Additionally, because of that defense, the Tar Heels can be aggressive and get to the free throw line. That allows the team with the 17^th best free throw percentage in the nation to go to work.
Get Brady Manek going early and often. For the first time in 23 games Manek did not hit a three against Virginia Tech in the ACC semifinals and things didn’t turn out so well for the Tar Heels. Carolina needs to be intentional about getting Manek going from the outset. Given his quick trigger and Marquette's undersized lineup, he should have no trouble getting his shot off.
Leaky lockdown. Leaky Black has been doing it all season, but the time to lockdown on defense has never been more critical. Marquette's Justin Lewis leads the team in points (17.1) and rebounding (7.9). His frame is a matchup nightmare for most teams. But most teams don't have Leaky Black. Shut down Lewis, and you win this game.
Exploit Marquette's weakness. The NCAA Tournament is not about rankings or how you did during the regular season. It’s all about how you matchup with the team in front of you and how you exploit their weaknesses and run your own game plan. Carolina has a size advantage in this game and must utilize it. I see that playing out in two ways. First, watch how Marquette chooses to guard Bacot. Will they leave him alone in single coverage? If so, he will feast. Or is Marquette going to double him? If so, refer to Four Corners point number two: Get Brady Manek going early and often. If Bacot is doubled he can kick out to Manek for some wide-open looks. Ultimately it’s the rebounding that wins it for the Heels. This is the whole key to the game for me: UNC is 9^th in the NCAA with a +7.73 rebound margin, while Marquette is 324^th (out of 358) with a -4 rebounding margin. Case closed.

Game Pick

At -3.5, I will take Carolina to both win and cover, with the final margin in the 6-8 range. As for the over-under, it's set at 152.5. I'm taking the under. While both of these teams are high scoring, it's inevitable that things will get bogged down in March.